"There's a Third Option"

Seconds

When you are handed exactly two choices, stop and generate at least one more before choosing, including doing nothing, doing both, doing part, doing it later, or pursuing the underlying goal in a different way.

How to do it

  1. 1Hear "either A or B" as a claim to be checked, not as a description of reality. Ask: are these really exhaustive? Are they really exclusive?
  2. 2Run a quick list of standard alternatives: neither; both; some of each; not yet; a smaller trial first; the same goal by another route; asking someone else; changing a constraint that both options assume.
  3. 3Ask what the choice is for. Options are means; once the end is stated ("we need to cut costs by ten percent"), other means usually appear.
  4. 4Ask who framed the choice and what they gain from each of the offered options. In sales, both options are frequently ones the seller is happy with ("the standard or the premium?").
  5. 5If you have a minute, use it on the vanishing-options test: suppose neither A nor B were available. What would you do then?
  6. 6When a real either-or remains after this, choose. The aim is to make sure you are choosing from the real menu, not to avoid choosing.

What to say

  • Those are two options. What are the others?
  • What happens if we do neither for now?
  • What are we actually trying to achieve? There may be another way to get it.

When to use it

  • A proposal is framed as "either we do this or disaster follows".
  • A salesperson or negotiator offers two packages and asks which you prefer.
  • A political or moral question is presented as a choice between two camps.
  • You are framing a decision for yourself as "whether or not" to do one thing.

Counters

Evidence and how strong it is

People tend to evaluate the options in front of them and seldom notice what has been left out. Fischhoff, Slovic and Lichtenstein (1978) showed that when whole branches were removed from a list of possible causes of a problem, even experts barely registered the omission and did not shift enough probability to "other". In organizational decisions, Nutt's (1999) study of several hundred strategic decisions found that managers who considered only one course of action, a "whether or not" choice, had markedly higher failure rates than those who developed multiple alternatives. Work on opportunity-cost neglect found that merely reminding consumers that not buying leaves money for something else changes choices (Frederick et al. 2009), which shows how rarely the unstated option is considered spontaneously. In logic, the false dilemma is a standard fallacy whose remedy is to find the omitted alternative or to show that both horns can be true (Walton 2008). Evidence strength: good experimental and observational support for the problem and for the value of generating alternatives; the specific conversational habit is untested practitioner advice.

Cautions
  • Some choices are binary: a vote on a fixed motion, a verdict, a surgical consent, a deadline that is real. Insisting on a third option there is evasion, and the search for it can itself be a way of avoiding a hard decision.
  • The third option is not automatically the right one. Splitting the difference between a true claim and a false one yields a half-false claim; this is the middle-ground fallacy.
  • More options are not always better. Beyond a handful, extra alternatives slow decisions and reduce satisfaction; the goal is to get from two to three or four.
  • If a controlling partner or family member is the one posing the ultimatum, proposing alternatives may be treated as defiance. Where you are afraid of the reaction, put safety ahead of winning the point and speak with a domestic-violence advocate (US: 1-800-799-7233, thehotline.org; international: hotpeachpages.net).
  1. Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4(2), 330-344
    Evidence that people, including experts, fail to notice options omitted from a presented list.
  2. Nutt, P. C. (1999). Surprising but true: Half the decisions in organizations fail. Academy of Management Executive, 13(4), 75-90
    Observational evidence that decisions framed around a single alternative failed more often than those in which several alternatives were developed.
  3. Frederick, S., Novemsky, N., Wang, J., Dhar, R., & Nowlis, S. (2009). Opportunity cost neglect. Journal of Consumer Research, 36(4), 553-561
    Experiments showing that people rarely consider unstated alternatives unless prompted, and that a simple reminder changes choices.
  4. Walton, D. (2008). Informal Logic: A Pragmatic Approach (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press
    The logical analysis of the false dilemma and the responses of finding an omitted alternative or denying that the options are exclusive.
Last reviewed

More in Debate and argument

Argument Mapping

Draw the argument as a diagram, with the main claim at the top, the reasons for and objections against it beneath, and the support for each of those beneath them, so that gaps, repetition, and unsupported leaps become visible instead of being carried along by fluent prose.

The Toulmin Check

Test any single argument by asking Toulmin's six questions of it: what is the claim, what are the grounds, what warrant connects them, what backs the warrant, how strongly is the claim qualified, and under what conditions would it fail?

Fallacy Audit of Your Own Case

Before you publish, present, or press an argument, go through it as a hostile reader would, looking for the fallacies and statistical shortcuts you would attack in an opponent, and fix or cut what you find.

Flow the Argument

Borrow the competitive debater's note-taking method: write each of the other side's points in a column as they are made, put the responses beside them, and look at what is left unanswered, so that volume and speed cannot substitute for substance.

Pick the Strongest Claim

When faced with a pile of arguments, ask the other side to name their single best one, or choose it yourself, and examine that one thoroughly, instead of chasing every point or knocking down only the weakest.

Pin the Bailey

When a position seems to change size depending on whether it is being advanced or defended, write down the bold version and the modest version side by side and ask which one is being claimed, so the speaker cannot enjoy the conclusions of one and the defensibility of the other.