PoliticalDUAL-USE

Rally Around the Flag

What it is

Exploiting external threats or crises to generate a surge of public support for leadership, suppressing domestic criticism as unpatriotic.

How it works

During perceived external threats, populations instinctively unify behind their leaders. This "rally effect" increases approval ratings, silences dissent, and creates political capital. Leaders may manufacture, exaggerate, or prolong crises to exploit this dynamic, knowing that questioning leadership during a crisis is socially costly.

Real-world examples

  • •The term: John Mueller (1970) identified the effect in presidential approval data.
  • •George H. W. Bush reached 89 percent approval after the Gulf War (Gallup, March 1991); George W. Bush reached 90 percent after the September 11 attacks; John F. Kennedy's approval rose after the Bay of Pigs failure in 1961.
  • •Margaret Thatcher's approval climbed during the 1982 Falklands War; Argentina's junta had launched the invasion partly to escape domestic unrest, and its collapse followed the defeat.
  • •Vladimir Putin's approval rose from the low 60s to above 80 percent after the 2014 annexation of Crimea (Levada Center).
  • •Suspicion of manufacture: Operation Desert Fox (December 1998) coincided with impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton and drew wag-the-dog accusations; the same accusation is made whenever any leader acts abroad during domestic trouble, which is why timing alone proves nothing.

Ethical guidelines

Where the line is

Unifying people in a genuine crisis is leadership. It becomes manipulation when a crisis is exaggerated, provoked, or prolonged to suppress legitimate criticism, and criticism itself is branded as disloyalty.

  • ●National crises demand genuine leadership, not political exploitation.
  • ●The impulse to suppress dissent during emergencies is exactly when oversight is most needed.
  • ●Manufacturing or prolonging conflict for political benefit is a profound moral failure.

How to defend against it

  • ►History shows the rally effect is temporary — don't make permanent decisions during temporary emotions.
  • ►Patriotism includes holding leaders accountable, especially during crises.
  • ►Compare how a crisis is being framed domestically versus how it's covered internationally.

From the Defense Playbook

Superordinate Goals and Structured Contacttakes practice

Reduce hostility between groups by having them work together, as equals, toward a goal that both want and neither can reach alone; mere exposure or exhortation does little, but cooperative contact under the right conditions reliably lowers prejudice.

Every playbook entry states how strong its evidence is and when not to use it. Browse the full playbook.

References

  1. Mueller, J. E. (1970). Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. American Political Science Review, 64(1), 18–34
    Coined the 'rally round the flag' effect: presidential approval jumps after sudden, dramatic international events that involve the president directly, the surge in support the entry describes.
  2. Brody, R. A. (1991). Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford University Press
    Why rallies suppress criticism: rallies occur when opposition elites withhold criticism during a crisis, so the press carries mostly supportive messages — evidence for the entry's claim that questioning leadership in a crisis becomes socially costly; the further claim that leaders manufacture crises to exploit this (diversionary-war theory) has mixed empirical support.
Last reviewed
Suggest a correction

Detect Rally Around the Flag in any text

Paste any message, email, or article into our free Manipulation Detector to see if Rally Around the Flag or other techniques are being used on you.

Try the Detector FreeCreate Free Account